It’s True, Numbers Don’t Lie…Prices are Going UP!

A contrarian doesn’t wait until national magazines and newspapers let the world know prices are on the way up.

Trend analysis is the tool used and is important for those people who want to “get in on the ground floor”.   The buy low, sell high mentality can’t wait for Time or Newsweek to announce home prices are up; by that time, the floor has risen considerably.

Sheer logic tells us this is true, think about the lead time needed for a reporter to first  realize prices are on the way up, then gather information to substantiate the claim, write the story, then the editor has to decide if this is a cover story or not…which may be a few more weeks.  Just as I am purveying this information after the fact, since prices are already on the way up, I too am late to the party!

Tucson Multiple Listing information for December 2010 shows that prices are up 3.13% from an average sales price of $180,736 in November to $186,399 in December.  The average list price of a home is up 3.04% from November, or from $191,637 to $197,457.

The median sales price remained approximately the same between November and December with a .29% decrease from $139,900 in November to $139,500 in December.

Although the total number of homes under contract in December decreased 7.37% from 1900 in November to 1760 in December, traditionally the months of November and December see fewer people putting offers on homes because of the Thanksgiving – Christmas holidays.

Yet the total sales volume rose 16.93%, an impressive amount, from $144,588,779 in November to $169,063,508 in December.  This represents an increase of 13.38% in total units sold within the Tucson Multiple Listing area, from 800 in November to 907 in December.

The holidays also see fewer people listing their homes.  Many wait until January, beginning the new year with new intentions, having put the holidays behind.  December new listings decreased 25.63% to 1,071 from 1,440 in November.   This brought the number of active listings in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service area down to 6,859 in December, which is a decrease of 7.99% over November.

New home construction prices are also on the rise.   In one subdivision I visited this weekend, prices on one model have had two increases in pricing within the last month.

Tomorrow we look at the various areas in Tucson and where the most homes are being sold…later this week we will revisit the numbers of short sales and foreclosures in the various areas.

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