Posts Tagged ‘Statistics’

Tucson Real Estate Market Showing Some Steam…

Monday, March 14th, 2011

The Tucson real estate market is experiencing some steam with an increase of 23.08% in volume from $130,258,440 in January 2011 to the $160,319,228 in February 2011. This number is about $15,000,000 higher than February 2010.

Are we out of the woods yet?

The average sales price increased 9.22% from January 2011 to February of 2011;  $166,998 to $182,388 in February, but still short of the 2010 numbers which were $201,219 in January 2010 and $195,996 in February 2010.

The average list price increased 8.43% from $177,036 in January 2011 to $191,957 in February 2011.  This compares to $201,219 in January 2010 and $206,843 in February 2010 .

The median sales price in February 2011 is $137,000 a decrease from February 2010 of $13,000 ($150,000) but an increase from January 2011 from $134,250 or 2.05%. The median sales price in January 2010 was $160,000.

A total of 2,272 properties were under contract at the end of February 2011, an increase of 60.34% from February 2010 when only 1,417 were under contract.  This is a 12.87%  increase  in February 2011 from January 2011 when 2,013 properties were under contract.  This compares to January 2010 when only 1,155 properties were under contract.

Total sales units in February were 879 compared to January 2011 when 780 were sold, an increase of 12.69%.  This is more than January 2010 when 712 units were sold and 741 in February 2010.

The numbers of new listings too have declined which may bode well for the Tucson market, maybe signaling that inventory is decreasing.  February new listings total 1,487 as compared to 1,949 in January and 2,104 in February 2010 and 2,424 in February 2010. The month over month 2011 decrease is 23.70%, a substantial number.

Active listings have declined from January when 7,147 properties were listed, and February numbers of 6,947 active listings, down 2.80%.  This is still higher though than 2010 numbers when 6,739 properties were listed in February and 6,618 in January 2010.

The area with the greatest number of properties on the market is the Northwest with 1772 active listings.  This is followed by the Central area with 869 properties for sale and the North Catalina Foothills areas with 727.  Only 17 properties are available in the extreme Northeast.

Looking at price points, the majority of homes sell between $100,000 and $159,999.   Running the gamut however, Tucson has 44 active properties priced at $29,999 or lower and at the other end of the spectrum, 194 properties price at $1,000,000 or higher.

The average number of days to sell a home in Tucson is 107 days.  The extreme Northwest properties sell in an average of 51 days while the northeast properties take 130 days.

The majority of people are paying cash for their real estate purchases (336), followed by Conventional loans (251) and then FHA financing (195).  VA loans totaled only 55.  The cash purchases may be reflective of the fact investors are active in Tucson.  Resort and second home buyers are also cashing in on the “bargains” here and many second home buyers also pay cash.

Prices are similar to the end of 2003 and the first month of 2004.  As Marshall Vest, Chief Economist at the Eller School of Management at the University of Arizona told the industry at the Economic Summit, “buy all you can buy, hold it for five years, and make a killing!”


Tucson Real Estate Market Shows Upbeat Signs…

Friday, September 24th, 2010

An 11.36% increase in Tucson, Arizona homes sold during August statistically illustrates positive movement in the real estate market, and coupled with a decline in inventory of 21.82% and an increase of 39.19% of total listings under contract, the figures demonstrate the numbers of homes on the market in Tucson is decreasing.

This is good for the real estate market. In July 990 homes went under contract and in August 1,378 had contracts. A total of 792 homes were sold in July and 882 or 11.36% more homes sold in August. The median sales price inched up $750.00 from $150,000 to $150,750. and the number of new listings decreased from 1861 in July to the August total of 1,455. However, the total of active listings rose to 7,180 from 6,668 or 7.53% reflecting spillover inventory.

Looking at the percentage of homes sold in each zip code, the areas with more than 20% of homes sold include the downtown area with 23.33% where 7 out of 30 active properties sold; 85746, the southwest area which includes Midvale Park, where 24.86% of the properties sold or 45 out of 181 properties, and 85738, Catalina, where 100% of the properties sold or 1 out of 1 listing.

The Northwest area of town has the most properties on the market with 1,826 homes for sale. During August, 219 homes sold. That is followed by the central area of town which includes the University area, with 921 homes on the market and 102 sold in August. Rounding out the top three is the North section of town which includes the Catalina Foothills with 676 properties on the market and only 69 sold during August.

Price wise, the properties between $120,000 and $250,000 had the most sold and also accounted for the most inventory. Less than 10% of the properties priced above $250,000 were sold in August.

Types of financing were nearly evenly split between FHA loans which 242 buyers selected, conventional loans for which 275 buyers opted, and 245 buyers elected to pay cash. The remaining financing was split between VA loans, owner carry backs, cash to loan and other types of financing.

The average sales price decreased 2.9% from $192,072 in July to $186,562 in August while the median sales price increased about one half of one percent to $150,750.
The average number of days in the market increased by four days to 91 from 87. West side homes took the longest to sell on average at 114 days, while the extreme northeast only took an average of 59 days.

When looking to purchase or sell property, studying the statistical data can give you insight as to how long it may take to sell property and where the price points are located for people looking to purchase property. It also shows up/down movement in the market. Make sure you have the latest Multiple Listing Monthly Statistics to help you make a good decision and ask your Realtor® to help you interpret the data for your specific need.

Tucson Association of Realtors August 2010 Monthly Statistical Report:

How Will You Price Your Property?…

Monday, September 20th, 2010

So, what is my property worth anyway? Is the market up or is the market down?  Whom are we to believe?

It seems as if you can take your pick of economists to whom you listen. Some say we are coming out of the doldrums. The big announcement today said the recession ended in June…and yet other economists say the other shoe is yet to drop, they foresee another 18% drop in home prices.

Part of it is political, it’s almost believe what you want to believe at your own peril. Caveat emptor prevails!

That leaves the home seller/homebuyer in a real quandary. Don’t believe the national media, they are slanted to whatever political perspective they subscribe. The markets are regional, areas which did not see the escalating increases in prices between 2003 and 2008 and remained fairly stable, are still stable.

Areas like Arizona which saw a 45% plus overall increase in housing prices within three years are still reeling from the deflationary impact.

But, there are parts of Arizona, and in particular Tucson, (which is the market I serve) that are harder hit than other areas.

In order to truly value a home, one has to look at what is happening locally, and that is by zip code, and sometimes by subdivision. Those subdivisions which faced overbuilding during the frothy times of 2003-2008 are in far worse shape than areas where homes are older and do not turn over rapidly.

I took the better part of an afternoon to compute the numbers of bank owned properties and the numbers of short sales in every Tucson zip code as of August 30, 2010. I then computed the percentages of each and the combined percentages and found that more than 50% of the homes on the market in some zip codes are distressed properties.

Generally these are places where large master planned communities were being built; Gladden Farms, Star Valley, Rancho Del Lago, Sahuarita, Quail Creek, the Irvington Road/Escalante area, Cortaro Farms near the highway, and Corona de Tucson.

And there are areas where there are less than 20% of the properties in distress; the 85704 area which includes some of Oro Valley and the Casas Adobes area, the center of town near the university in 85716 and 85719, the Diamond Bell Ranch area, Saddlebrook and Catalina,  Mount Lemmon,a portion of the Catalina Foothills, some of Green Valley, and the prize goes to 85646, Tubac with only 7.143% of the homes underwater.

When you are pricing your home to sell, make sure your Realtor® knows the numbers and knows the trend in the area in which you live. I priced three homes today and pulled the numbers from the last six months for the zip code. The pricing differential in all three areas was significantly different. One was in 85747 where 43% of the homes are distressed; one was in 85704 where 19.5% of the homes are underwater, and one was in 85745 where nearly 35% of the homes have problems.

You as the buyer and or seller need to know this because the appraiser is obligated to take distressed properties into consideration when appraising your property.  As someone once said, “the distressed property in this area is the market” and unfortunately everyone suffers whether or not they are in the same predicament.

Tucson Home Sales … Yearly Statistics

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

The average price of a home in Tucson is down less than $4,000 since a year ago, but up more than $2,000 from November.  The average housing price, at $202,376, in Tucson is comparable to prices at the end of 2003 and the first quarter of 2004.  Likewise the median price is down from $163,000 in January 2009 to $154,262 in December, which again reflected first quarter 2004 pricing.

Looking at 2009 the numbers are:

   yearly-statistics4– (Please open for yearly statistics – click “Notify” and the page should open)

The greatest number of properties sold in the 85757 zip code where Star Valley is located as well as several other new home communities built during the boom.   A total of 42.22% of the listed  properties on the market sold. 

35.83 per cent of the properties listed in 85706 zip code sold;  an area roughly bordered by Irvington Road to the north, south to Valencia, a bit east of I-19 to just east of Benson Highway.  The area, 85746, which encompasses Ajo to the north, including the Tohono O’Odham nation, south to Pima Mine Road,  west of I-19 and east of Sandario Road, had 32.87% of active listings sold.  This includes the Midvale/Mission Road area where many homes were built in the 1980’s and later.

The area where properties are selling most rapidly is considered southwest Tucson.  Ironically beyond Sandario only 6.90% of the homes have sold, but this is also know as the Brawley Wash area and includes Three Points, aka Robles Junction. 

The greatest number of homes on the market are in Oro Valley in the 85755 zip with 244, and in the 85737 zip with 237 homes. Also in the Northwest, 85739 which includes Saddlebrook Active /Adult Community, 244 homes are on the market.

 The Catalina Foothills in 85718 has 296 homes on the market, and 85750, also foothills has 284.  Much of this is considered District 16.  Looking southeast into the Vail area which includes Rancho Del Lago, another master planned community built in the mid 2000’s, 304 homes are on the market. 

Tax credits are still available and bond money for foreclosed homes is also available, with some restrictions.  Interest rates remain low and FHA requires only 3.5% down.  In some instances, with lender own properties, there may be help for buyers to purchase foreclosed homes. 

Talk with your Realtor and ask what is out there for financing as well as what types of homes are available in your price range.  Your Realtor is there to help you.  Or you can call me or e mail me at for professional assistance.

Resources: Tucson Association of Realtors Monthly Housing Statistics:

August Real Estate Sales Numbers…More Good News…

Friday, September 12th, 2008

      Although August 2008 brought only $215,369,442 in sales as compared with July which showed $240,837,426 in sales, more than a 35 million decline, the numbers this month indicate that the Tucson market is reacting to the numbers of foreclosures and short sales, but is continuing to stabilize.

    The average sales price declined another 6.42% month over month, and is now $238,504.   The average sales price in July was $254,854.   At the peak in March 2006, the average sales price was $281,819.

     Likewise the median salesprice also declined 7.45% from $199,900 in July to $185,000 in August.  For  people thinking about entering the market as a buyer, this may be an excellent time.   The high median sales price of $226,465 occurred in November 2005.

      The number of active listings in multiple listing declined 1.43% from 7,876  units in July to 7,763 units in August.  This is a level seen last in March 2006 when 7,577 properties were on the market.  At the high point of inventory there were more than 10,300 properties on the market.

     Pending contracts declined 8.54% from 960 in July to 878 in August.  This goes back to levels of January 2001 and may reflect heistancy on the part of buyers who may have been waiting for intervention of the federal government and the interpretation of the Housing Bill.  Interest rates have once again declined with the government take over of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

      There was a rise in new listings from 1679 in July to 1,952 in Agust, an increase of 16.26%.  Still this number reaches back to January 2005 levels when 1947 new listings came on the market.  With the exception of December when new listings dramatically fall, from that point in 2005, the numbers of new listings continued to soar to nearly 3500 at the peak in January 2007. 

        The number of properties sold declined 4.44% month over month with 903 sold in August and 945 sold in July.   Sellers appear to be pricing their properties to the market since only 545 properties expired; the listing  period endeed and the property did not sell.  This is down from 813 in January. 

       Properties are staying on the market an average of 77 days, down one day from July at 78.  Days on the market in July-August 2005 were a low of 25 days.  Properties at the higher price end though are staying on the market longer periods of time.

       The following chart shows the numbers of active properties for sale in each zip code within the Tucson Multiple Listing Service, the number of properties sold within each zip code during August, and the percentage of properties sold during the month.

Zip Active Sold   % of Active Properties Sold
85601 10 0   0.00%  
85614 352 23   6.53%  
65619 11 0   0.00%  
85629 227 21   9.25%  
85641 354 38   10.73%  
85653 255 26   10.20%  
85658 135 5   3.70%  
85701 48 3   6.25%  
85704 225 29   12.89%  
85705 198 27   13.64%  
85706 386 59   15.28%  
85710 301 42   13.95%  
85711 196 29   14.80%  
85712 205 15   7.32%  
85713 316 24   7.59%  
85714 54 7   12.96%  
85715 164 14   8.54%  
85716 170 28   16.47%  
85718 408 30   7.35%  
85719 199 37   18.59%  
85730 207 30   14.49%  
85735 92 10   10.87%  
85736 63 4   6.35%  
85737 277 34   12.27%  
85739 219 21   9.59%  
85741 176 33   18.75%  
85742 270 35   12.96%  
85743 361 50   13.85%  
85745 321 36   11.21%  
85746 280 40   14.29%  
85747 206 40   19.42%  
85748 131 16   12.21%  
85749 221 18   8.14%  
85750 314 30   9.55%  
85755 275 28   10.18%  
85757 138 21   15.22%  

    Readers can further parse and analyze the MLS numbers by clicking on the resource link.



Great July Numbers!

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

     The Tucson Association of Realtors has released the July numbers and the market appears to be stablizing.  The average number of pending contracts is up by nine from 951 in June to 960 in July.  Active listings have decreased by 264 listings from 8,140 in June to 7,876 in July.

    New listings have decreased by 416 to 1,679 in July from 2,095 in June.   A total of 945 home sales were processed through Multiple Listing in July down 89 units from June.  The total sales volume decreased from $266,202,280 in June to $240,837,426 in July.   Although the average sales price has decreased to $254,854 in July from the June price of $257,449, the Median sales price is about the same at $199,900 in July verses $200,000 in June. 

    The breakdown of homes for sale by zip code indicates 422 homes for sale in the 85706 area which is around Davis Monthan Air Force Base.  A total of 417 homes are on the market in the Catalina Foothills 85718 zip code.  Next to that is the 85641 zip code which is south of San Xavier Mission and west of I-19 with a total of 358 homes for sale.  Then the 85641 Vail area has the fourth greatest number of homes for sale at 358.  A total of 336 homes are on the market in the 85743 area which is the Continental Ranch area. 

   Areas which have few properties for sale is the central downtown area, 85701 with only 10 active listings, and then the 85619 area which is Mount Lemmon -Summerhaven area.

   It follows that the majority of areas where the most properties are for sale are those areas where Builders put up homes in master planned community areas.

    To further understand the numbers, this blog post could be read in conjunction with: July 28, 2008 – Bring on the Numbers and July 29, 2008 A note of Apology…and More Numbers.


For a full report see:

For information from Charlie Kentnor on the Sonita numbers, check: