The four managers of the towns in Pima County spoke Thursday to the Tucson Association of Realtors® (TAR) with a prognosis of what growth is anticipated in each of the areas.

“Sahuarita is contending with today’s reality and planning for the future” said Jim Stahle, City Manager of Sahuarita, a town which experienced a growth of 9000 houses, with one half of this building in Rancho Sahuarita.

A total of 1700 housing permits were issued in 2006 and in 2010, only 311 permits issued, the same as 2001, he said. Quail Creek, a Robson active adult community, has seen 18% of those building permits.

Sahuarita has cut budgets, cut staff and is making tough decisions in order to maintain the service levels.  As a result, the town has become more efficient.

Challenges facing the new town include a commercial Community Facilities District (CFD), the cost of  which would be shared with developers.

Development is projected in the Rancho Sahuarita Town District which is ideally located between I-19 and Sahuarita Road, Stahle said.

The town conducted a psychographics analysis trying to determine what people would buy in such an area.

Determining if Sahuarita  will “get into the water business” or if water will remain under the purview of private business is another issue facing the town.  If the town decides to purchase the water company, the issue is how to structure the purchase, the fact it will then be subjected to state regulation, and how the town will pay for the water company, now in private hands.

Farmers Investment Company (FIC), the largest pecan grower in the nation, located in Sahuarita, has 6,000 to 7,000 acres it is eyeing for development in the future, possibly 15 to 50 years.  Much of the land is located in a flood plain zone.  Projected growth will impact the river management plan and the master plan. The town and FIC are working together for planned growth and development.

Sahuarita is looking for opportunities to attract well paying jobs, and is identifying areas which are capable of landing employment.  It also, like the other three towns, is considering annexation of adjacent areas.

Resources: http://www.ci.sahuarita.az.us/

http://www.pecanstore.com/Aboutus.asp

A contrarian doesn’t wait until national magazines and newspapers let the world know prices are on the way up.

Trend analysis is the tool used and is important for those people who want to “get in on the ground floor”.   The buy low, sell high mentality can’t wait for Time or Newsweek to announce home prices are up; by that time, the floor has risen considerably.

Sheer logic tells us this is true, think about the lead time needed for a reporter to first  realize prices are on the way up, then gather information to substantiate the claim, write the story, then the editor has to decide if this is a cover story or not…which may be a few more weeks.  Just as I am purveying this information after the fact, since prices are already on the way up, I too am late to the party!

Tucson Multiple Listing information for December 2010 shows that prices are up 3.13% from an average sales price of $180,736 in November to $186,399 in December.  The average list price of a home is up 3.04% from November, or from $191,637 to $197,457.

The median sales price remained approximately the same between November and December with a .29% decrease from $139,900 in November to $139,500 in December.

Although the total number of homes under contract in December decreased 7.37% from 1900 in November to 1760 in December, traditionally the months of November and December see fewer people putting offers on homes because of the Thanksgiving – Christmas holidays.

Yet the total sales volume rose 16.93%, an impressive amount, from $144,588,779 in November to $169,063,508 in December.  This represents an increase of 13.38% in total units sold within the Tucson Multiple Listing area, from 800 in November to 907 in December.

The holidays also see fewer people listing their homes.  Many wait until January, beginning the new year with new intentions, having put the holidays behind.  December new listings decreased 25.63% to 1,071 from 1,440 in November.   This brought the number of active listings in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service area down to 6,859 in December, which is a decrease of 7.99% over November.

New home construction prices are also on the rise.   In one subdivision I visited this weekend, prices on one model have had two increases in pricing within the last month.

Tomorrow we look at the various areas in Tucson and where the most homes are being sold…later this week we will revisit the numbers of short sales and foreclosures in the various areas.

An 11.36% increase in Tucson, Arizona homes sold during August statistically illustrates positive movement in the real estate market, and coupled with a decline in inventory of 21.82% and an increase of 39.19% of total listings under contract, the figures demonstrate the numbers of homes on the market in Tucson is decreasing.

This is good for the real estate market. In July 990 homes went under contract and in August 1,378 had contracts. A total of 792 homes were sold in July and 882 or 11.36% more homes sold in August. The median sales price inched up $750.00 from $150,000 to $150,750. and the number of new listings decreased from 1861 in July to the August total of 1,455. However, the total of active listings rose to 7,180 from 6,668 or 7.53% reflecting spillover inventory.

Looking at the percentage of homes sold in each zip code, the areas with more than 20% of homes sold include the downtown area with 23.33% where 7 out of 30 active properties sold; 85746, the southwest area which includes Midvale Park, where 24.86% of the properties sold or 45 out of 181 properties, and 85738, Catalina, where 100% of the properties sold or 1 out of 1 listing.

The Northwest area of town has the most properties on the market with 1,826 homes for sale. During August, 219 homes sold. That is followed by the central area of town which includes the University area, with 921 homes on the market and 102 sold in August. Rounding out the top three is the North section of town which includes the Catalina Foothills with 676 properties on the market and only 69 sold during August.

Price wise, the properties between $120,000 and $250,000 had the most sold and also accounted for the most inventory. Less than 10% of the properties priced above $250,000 were sold in August.

Types of financing were nearly evenly split between FHA loans which 242 buyers selected, conventional loans for which 275 buyers opted, and 245 buyers elected to pay cash. The remaining financing was split between VA loans, owner carry backs, cash to loan and other types of financing.

The average sales price decreased 2.9% from $192,072 in July to $186,562 in August while the median sales price increased about one half of one percent to $150,750.
The average number of days in the market increased by four days to 91 from 87. West side homes took the longest to sell on average at 114 days, while the extreme northeast only took an average of 59 days.

When looking to purchase or sell property, studying the statistical data can give you insight as to how long it may take to sell property and where the price points are located for people looking to purchase property. It also shows up/down movement in the market. Make sure you have the latest Multiple Listing Monthly Statistics to help you make a good decision and ask your Realtor® to help you interpret the data for your specific need.

Resources:
Tucson Association of Realtors August 2010 Monthly Statistical Report:
http://tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/aug10.pdf

 Tucson real estate market trends begin to appear with numbers analysis over a period of months, often providing suprises.  Relative to the numbers of properties sold compared to the number of listings in the area, the locations of Tucson showing the greatest number of sales include the Central area, the East, the South, the Southeast, and the Southwest.  Each one of those areas in June had greater than 22% of listings sold. 

Tracking the numbers, we can see improvement in almost all areas.  Many homeowners, however, are keeping their properties off the market until the price points improve.  This is particularly true in high dollar areas.  Many properties which have been on the market more than six or nine months, are taken off the market by their owners.

The numbers of days on the market for listings sold was 83 in January, 85 in February, 85 in March, 78 in April, 85 in May and 80 in June.  Sellers know in order to compete in today’s market, properties must be priced “ahead of the curve” and show better than competing properties.  Much of the competition today is in short sales and foreclosure properties. 

By far, the greatest numbers of properties currently on the market are priced between $200,000 and $249,999.  This is followed by properties between $300,000 and $399,999.  Collectively, about three times as many properties priced between $100,000 and $200,000 with approximate $20,000 steps, are listed. 

On the upper end of the price scale, as of June 2009, 432 properties are listed between $400,000 and $499,999;  519 between $500,000 and $749,999; 258 properties between $750,000 and $999,999 and 301 properties priced $1,000,000 or above.

The chart below shows the numbers of properties sold each month since January 2009 and the total number of listings for each of the 14 Multiple Listing areas.   Looking at the percentages, one can discern where the properties are moving,  The upside is most all areas have experienced increase in sales since January 2009.

Resources:

http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/MLS_Stats_June.pdf

Again, thank you Scott Weidamoyer who compiles statistics from where I generate these numbers for the Tucson Association of Realtors.

   When people don’t know what is about to transpire, they do nothing.  The total Tucson real estate sales volume between January 2009 and June 2009 definitely reflects that sentiment with an 88% increase in  June over January.  In February, the stimulus bill passed and people felt relieved that they now knew what Congress was doing.  The sales numbers reflect people coming out of hibernation to purchase property.

The median sales price crept up slightly from $163,500 to $165,000 or about 1 1/2%.

Two years ago in June, the median sales price was $225,000.  That is a drop of more than 26%.  However, the average sales price tops $200,000 and is within a little more than one percentage point in June over January.

Tucson has 14 Multiple Listing Service areas and once again, the average sales price in the North- the Catalina Foothills area is the highest at $387,629, followed closely by the extreme Northeast which is the Redding Pass area at $375,000.  The Northeast area follows with an average sales price of $342,160; this is the Sabino Canyon area.

Dropping to an average sales price of $263,894 is the Northwest area which encompasses Dove Mountain, Oro Valley, and Continental Ranch.  From that price point, decreasing in value is the extreme south at $201,082–the Green Valley Sahuarita area.   From there, the extreme southeast or the Vail area is at $191,743.

The west side average price is $182,821, followed by the central area which includes the University of Arizona area at $180,320.  The east side of town includes areas around Davis Monthan Air Force Base and is next in line at an average sales price of $161,749.

The extreme northwest or west of the Tucson Mountains in the Arva Valley area has an average price of $136,050, followed by the extreme southwest where STar Valley master planned subdivision is located and Diamond Bell Ranch, at $125,449.   The southwest encompasses Midvale Park at $107,664 and finally the south area of Tucson at $97,291.

Price points follow the value of land and in the north, few building lots are available, whereas in the southwest, building lots are readily available.  However, one should remember 82% of all the land in Arizona is held by some type of governmental entity.  Only 18% of the land mass is available for development.

Zip codes also tell a story of what areas are selling, compared to the numbers of properties active on the market.

Click the following link for a map of Tucson and Zip Codes.

http://www.tucsonaz.gov/planning/maps/city/wardzip.pdf

Resources:

http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/MLS_Stats_June.pdf

Once again, thank you Scott Weidamoyer of the Tucson Association of Realtors who compiles the statistics which I use on these blogs.